COVID-19 trends in Europe (incl. reproduction numbers)

Date of article: 26 July 2020


Week-over-week trend analysis (July 26)

Below chart shows the week-over-week trends in newly reported coronavirus cases for European countries.

With 8 countries reporting a more than 50% increase last week compared to the week before and only 1 country reporting a 30% decrease, it looks like Europe is uptrending. It's striking that three Western European countries are uptrending simulatineously now (France, Belgium and the Netherlands), while also Spain and in particular touristic regions Catalonia and Andalucia report a significant increase in new detected cases.

Looking at the above trends, it is also worth noting that although Serbia and Hungary have been reporting more coronavirus cases, these 2 countries both have a downtrending positivity rate. This indicates that the upward trend in cases in these 2 countries is related to more testing.


Effective Reproduction Numbers (Rt)

For an explanation on the differences between the Basic Reproduction Number and the Effective Reproduction number, and the meaning of the Effective Reproduction number, please check the following article: https://www.newsnodes.com/article/119

Below are the most recent reproduction numbers as published by government / public health agencies.

  • Austria: 1.11, two weeks ago: 1.29 (Source: AGES)
  • Belgium: 1.32, (two weeks ago: 0.87 (Source: Sciensano)
  • France: 1.29, two weeks ago: 1.05 (Source: Santé Publique France)
  • Germany: 1.25, two weeks ago: 0.90 (Source: RKI using 7 day R-value)
  • Luxembourg: 1.01, two weeks ago: 1.09 (Source: MOH Luxembourg)
  • Norway: "below 1", two weeks ago: "below 1" (Source: Folkehelseinstituttet)
  • Spain: 1.25, two weeks ago: 0.89 (Source: Instituto de Salud Carlos III)
  • The Netherlands: 1.29, two weeks ago: 1.06 (Source: RIVM)

example of current R-values, as reported by Santé Publique France.


As shown above, R-values are above 1 in every single European country reporting on it, with the exception of Norway. It's for the first time in months that the R-value is above 1 at the same time in many European countries. With governments reporting the R-value above 1 and increasing trends in cases, it is likely that the number of new confirmed cases will continue to rise over the next weeks in Europe and in particular in Western Europe.

For more information on recent COVID-19 reporting and trends, have a look at: https://www.newsnodes.com/europe/


Do you know of more European governments who publish a Rt-value? Share it with us by sending an e-mail or Twitter message!

article by Newsnodes








 

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